Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings - preview, prediction and fantasy angle
A Wankhede evening match with the dew factor at 0.62 and a slightly slower surface than the last two fixtures. Our win probability is 54-46 Mumbai, with a target of 172 if Mumbai bat first.
Predicted margin: Mumbai by 14 runs (or 5 wickets)
Slower cutters will be the deciding factor in the second innings. Hardik Pandya's death-overs workload favours Mumbai. The dew lifts the chase-side by 0.6 percentage points.
The conditions, in four numbers
Probable XIs
Mumbai Indians
Rohit Sharma, J. Bumrah, H. Pandya (c), S. Yadav, T. David, K. Yadav, N. Rana, A. Khan, M. Markram, D. Brevis, A. Tare (wk).
Chennai Super Kings
R. Gaikwad (c), D. Conway, S. Dube, R. Jadeja, M. Ali, A. Rahane, M. Theekshana, T. Curran, D. Chahar, M. Pathirana, S. Singh (wk).
Three captain picks, ranked by expected impact
Hardik Pandya
Index 89. All-rounder ceiling; expects a full death-overs workload. Differential option thin if Hardik is rested.
Travis Head
Index 84. Powerplay impact against new-ball swing in evening conditions. We rate him above the obvious names.
Ruturaj Gaikwad
Index 79. Anchor role in a Chepauk chase. Lower ceiling but higher consistency if the surface grips.