Match prediction

Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings - preview, prediction and fantasy angle

A Wankhede evening match with the dew factor at 0.62 and a slightly slower surface than the last two fixtures. Our win probability is 54-46 Mumbai, with a target of 172 if Mumbai bat first.

Editor's pick

Predicted margin: Mumbai by 14 runs (or 5 wickets)

Slower cutters will be the deciding factor in the second innings. Hardik Pandya's death-overs workload favours Mumbai. The dew lifts the chase-side by 0.6 percentage points.

Pitch & weather

The conditions, in four numbers

7 mmLIVE GRASSSeam movement first 6 overs
0.62DEW FACTORChase-side advantage
168LOWER PARFirst-innings projected total
172UPPER PARFirst-innings projected total
Squads

Probable XIs

Mumbai Indians

Rohit Sharma, J. Bumrah, H. Pandya (c), S. Yadav, T. David, K. Yadav, N. Rana, A. Khan, M. Markram, D. Brevis, A. Tare (wk).

4 seam, 2 spin

Chennai Super Kings

R. Gaikwad (c), D. Conway, S. Dube, R. Jadeja, M. Ali, A. Rahane, M. Theekshana, T. Curran, D. Chahar, M. Pathirana, S. Singh (wk).

3 seam, 3 spin
Fantasy angle

Three captain picks, ranked by expected impact

1

Hardik Pandya

Index 89. All-rounder ceiling; expects a full death-overs workload. Differential option thin if Hardik is rested.

Captain
2

Travis Head

Index 84. Powerplay impact against new-ball swing in evening conditions. We rate him above the obvious names.

Vice-captain
3

Ruturaj Gaikwad

Index 79. Anchor role in a Chepauk chase. Lower ceiling but higher consistency if the surface grips.

Differential
Quick answers

Reader questions, answered

Mumbai 54%, Chennai 46%, with chase-side adjustment for dew. Numbers published in our preview sheet.
168 to 172 in the first innings. The chase-side is favoured by 0.6 percentage points due to dew.
Possible. Kuldeep Yadav has a 12% higher impact index on slow surfaces, but his ceiling is lower than the all-rounders.
At toss (6:30 pm IST) and again at the innings break based on the actual total.
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