Match-by-match predictions with the working out shown
Probabilistic reads for cricket, football, tennis and kabaddi fixtures. We publish the inputs, the model choice and the result so you can compare to your own reasoning.
Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings - 54% / 46%
Wankhede, evening, dew likely. The pitch has been slow in the last two matches; slower cutters from the spinners will be the deciding factor in the second innings.
How our predictions are built
Predictions on COMEsportsdaily combine three layers: a baseline win-probability model trained on verified ball-by-ball and minute-by-minute data, an event-simulation layer accounting for pitch, weather, surface and venue, and an editor override that captures context the models can miss - injuries, squad rotation, dew, knockout context.
We publish the inputs for every match and we publish the result within 24 hours. If the model is wrong, we say so and explain why. There is no incentive to overstate confidence; the methodology is the product.
Where the data comes from
Verified ball-by-ball and minute-by-minute feeds from our data partners. Pitch and weather from a network of curators who walk each venue before match day. Squad and injury status from official team channels, cross-checked against the daily practice reports.
Where the models fall short
Form dips and personal disruptions are difficult to model. We treat these explicitly as an editor-override layer, not as inputs the model absorbs silently. If a star player pulls out within four hours of play, the prediction is updated; if the model cannot incorporate the change, the prediction is flagged and a note is published with the reasoning.
Our track record, by sport
Cricket result calls (match winner): 71% accuracy on 248 matches in 2024. Football match result (1X2): 56% accuracy on 412 matches in 2024. Tennis match winner: 64% accuracy across 318 matches. We publish the full ledger of past calls and outcomes in the desk's weekly retrospective.
Twelve fixtures with published predictions
| Date | Sport | Match | Prob A | Prob B | Editor note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu | Cricket | MI vs CSK | 54% | 46% | Slower cutters |
| Thu | Football | Arsenal vs Spurs | 49% | 27% draw | Mid-block intensity |
| Fri | Cricket | RCB vs GT | 51% | 49% | Dew factor 0.6 |
| Fri | Football | MCI vs LIV | 52% | 26% draw | Wide rotations |
| Sat | Cricket | KKR vs SRH | 48% | 52% | Pitch holds grip |
| Sat | Tennis | Sinner vs Med | 62% | 38% | Surface read |
| Sun | Cricket | CSK vs DC | 58% | 42% | Home conditions |
| Sun | Football | Barcelona vs ATM | 61% | 24% draw | Set pieces |
Build your own prediction
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