Match prediction tool

How the model works

The match-prediction tool blends a weighted model across recent form (last five matches), head-to-head record (last ten meetings), venue factors (home / away / neutral) and injury / availability data. Outputs are calibrated probabilities for win, draw (where applicable), top run-scorer and top wicket-taker.

Methodology

Recent form is weighted at 35%. The last-five win-rate is normalised against the schedule difficulty (opposition strength index). Head-to-head is weighted at 25%; venue factors at 20%; injury / availability at 20%. The model is re-fit every Monday with the latest results.

Calibration is checked weekly on a 200-match rolling window. Brier scores below 0.20 indicate a well-calibrated model; the desk's model is at 0.18 (Apr 14). Outputs carry a 90% confidence interval.

Coverage

Cricket: IPL, BBL, CPL, PSL, SA20, The Hundred, ILT20, international fixtures. Football: Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, Europa League, ISL. Tennis: ATP Masters 1000, WTA 1000, Grand Slams. Output is published 24 hours before each fixture and updated 60 minutes before toss / kick-off.

Walk-through: today's match

Input: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings, Wankhede. Recent form: MI W L W W L (60%), CSK W W L W W (80%). Head-to-head (last 10): MI 5 - CSK 5. Venue factor: Wankhede (home for MI) = +4% win probability. Injury / availability: MI full squad, CSK without Devon Conway (-2%). Output: CSK 52% - MI 48% (90% CI: ±6%).

Editor's note

The desk publishes a model output for every fixture 24 hours before the start. Refresh cadence: every 30 minutes for the last 24 hours; final update 60 minutes before toss / kick-off. Coverage note: model outputs are paired with editor picks for a 50/50 blend. The blend is calibrated to maintain a 60%+ hit rate on win / draw / loss markets.