Chelsea

Last-five form: W D W L W

Chelsea have won three of the last five across the Premier League and Conference League. Goals-per-match sits at 1.9 over the last ten; goals conceded at 0.9. Cole Palmer's xGI per 90 is 0.71 - top three in the league. Set-piece conversion has been the secondary trend (four goals from dead balls in the run).

Squad watch

Cole Palmer is the tactical anchor. Used as an inverted right-winger into the half-space, his shot volume from the left channel is the team's leading indicator. He has registered 4.3 shot-creating actions per 90.

The midfield three rotates on opposition shape. Against low blocks, Moises Caicedo sits; Enzo Fernandez pushes higher. Against pressing sides, Romeo Lavia joins Caicedo. Nicolas Jackson leads the line; the bench offers a Christopher Nkunku false-nine option.

Next three fixtures

vs Liverpool (home, league), vs Servette (away, Conference League), vs Arsenal (home, league). The Liverpool game is the swing - Palmer's match-up against Trent Alexander-Arnold will decide the press cue.

Depth chart

GK: Sanchez. Back four: Gusto-Disasi-Silva-Cucurella. Midfield: Caicedo-Enzo-Palmer. Front three: Madueke-Jackson-Sterling. Bench: Nkunku, Mudryk, Lavia.

Editor's note

The ceiling is Palmer receiving between the lines and the half-space overload drawing the press off Jackson. The floor is when the wide centre-back press cue forces Caicedo to drop and the team plays through the press. The January window is typically used on a striker and a left-back; both slots are shallow.